Review of the first half of 2026 and outlook on security of supply for the coming months

French electricity consumption, adjusted for weather and calendar effects, showed signs of a very slight recovery (+1 per cent) in the first half of 2026 compared with the first half of 2025, although it remains to be seen whether this slight increase will be sustained during the second half of 2026 and beyond, and it is not yet possible at this stage to conclude that a genuine shift in electricity consumption is underway to meet public targets.

French generation continued to rise, reaching 284.3 TWh in the first half of 2026 (+4.6 per cent) compared with the first half of 2025, driven by nuclear, wind and solar power, with an unprecedented level of decarbonisation for a first half (95.2 per cent).

The stability of gross electricity consumption, combined with the abundance of decarbonised generation, led to a new record for net exports in a first half of the year (a net export balance of 51.0 TWh).

In line with a trend evident since the start of 2024, French spot and forward prices remained decoupled from those of most neighbouring countries due to the abundance of decarbonised generation relative to domestic consumption. At the same time, the number of episodes of negative prices has increased, accompanied by the emergence of sharply negative prices. Price volatility has thus intensified.

These results are consistent with RTE’s forecast analyses, as detailed, for example, in the latest Forecast Report. In particular, they highlight the heavy strain on the grid in situations where low consumption coincides with high generation, particularly in the spring, and confirm the need for the planned grid reinforcements and for developing flexibility in both generation and consumption to ensure these episodes can be managed.

The outlook for summer 2026 appears favourable in terms of the balance between electricity supply and demand.

Weekly consumption peaks are expected to remain stable compared with last year under normal temperature conditions and could reach nearly 60 GW during heatwaves (as was the case during the heatwaves in late June and early July). Should the uptake of air-conditioning accelerate during the summer compared with the rates observed up to the end of June, these levels could be slightly exceeded on occasion, whilst remaining significantly lower than the consumption peaks observed during the winter (which historically stand at around 90 GW).

Overall, from the perspective of the national supply-demand balance, even taking into account the possible effects of the heatwave on consumption and the availability of generation capacity, and even assuming an increase in the use of air conditioning, the available generation capacity should remain more than sufficient to ensure the supply of electricity in France.

Find all the analyses in the report (in French only):