Evolution of the wind capacity factor

The capacity factor provides an indication of the power produced by wind turbines in relation to the installed capacity, at a given moment or on average over a certain period. This indicator is of particular interest to power system players: on the one hand, the production cost of a facility, and therefore its profitability, depends on the capacity factor; on the other hand, for a given installed capacity, the sizing of the power system and the associated costs (production grid, flexibilities, etc.) vary according to the capacity factor of the wind generators. This document presents an analysis of the evolution of wind power capacity factor over time.

Variations in capacity factor over time are the result of meteorological variability  (variations in wind speeds) and, on longer timescales, the evolution of technologies. Technological improvements, in particular the increase in mast height and rotor size, led to a slight increase in the capacity factors of wind turbines installed in France between the end of the 2000s and the first half of the 2010s, enabling the average capacity factor to rise from around 22% for turbines installed in 2007 to 27% for turbines installed in 2017. On the other hand, for wind turbines installed since then, capacity factors appear to be stabilizing.

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