Electricity review - 1st semester 2025
- Consumption remained stable in the first half of 2025;
- Decarbonised production was very abundant;
- The balance remained largely export-oriented;
- The situation for summer 2025 is very favourable in terms of production availability and electricity demand coverage, with consumption peaks during the summer expected to reach a maximum of 60 GW in the event of a heatwave.
Electricity review - 1st semester 2025
The first half of 2025 saw the confirmation of a number of trends that were already apparent in 2024.
Electricity consumption, which had halted its decline in 2023 following the health and energy crises, remained stable in the first half of 2025. It remains below its pre-health crisis level (6 to 7 per cent below the average for 2014 to 2019).
Decarbonised production was very abundant in the first half of the year. Nuclear (due to improved availability) and solar production increased. Wind and hydroelectric production declined, affected by less favourable weather conditions than in 2024. The volume of electricity produced in France in 2025 is therefore very close to that of 2024.
France's electricity trade balance remained largely in export mode throughout the first half of the year, amounting to 37.6 TWh over the period (the second highest balance after that of the first half of 2024). Projections indicate that the probability of exceeding the export record set in 2024 by the end of 2025 is limited, due in particular to a decline in hydroelectric production.
Electricity prices on the futures markets, which are the best indicator for identifying medium-term price dynamics in a country, have now fallen significantly in France compared to other European countries (except Spain). Prices for delivery the following year are €24/MWh lower than German prices. The trend is slightly downward, a sign that market players anticipate continued abundant carbon-free production.
French spot prices, which reflect the observed supply-demand balance, have been highly volatile (363 hours at negative prices, or about 8% of the time), compared with 235 hours in the first half of 2024. Although these negative prices have attracted a great deal of media attention, spot prices actually rose in 2025 and remained at a relatively high level (€67/MWh on average) during the first half of 2025, due to higher gas prices and colder temperatures. Despite this high level, they are also among the lowest in Europe.
Outlook for summer 2025
The outlook for summer 2025 is very favourable in terms of production availability and electricity demand coverage:
- Consumption peaks during the summer is expected to reach a maximum of around 60 GW in the event of a heatwave.
- The projected availability of nuclear power plants is similar to last year's levels (around 40 GW in June and for the rest of the summer), even though a number of reactors are traditionally undergoing maintenance at this time of year.
- Hydropower and gas stocks are at satisfactory levels for the season. The availability of thermal and hydropower plants is close to that observed last year.
- The development of renewable energies is helping to increase the supply of low-carbon electricity in France and neighbouring countries.
Based on the information available to date, there is therefore no cause for concern regarding the availability of electricity supply for the rest of the summer of 2025. Production levels are sufficient and the electricity system appears to be well equipped to meet electricity needs, even in the event of intense heatwaves and droughts.
The heatwave observed at the end of June and beginning of July confirms this analysis. During this episode, which led to record or near-record temperature levels for the period, consumption reached just under 60 GW. Although some nuclear reactors experienced production limitations, France remained an overall exporter throughout all episodes and still had significant margins to ensure security of supply.
In line with the situation observed since spring 2024, France will have to manage episodes of high abundance of low-carbon electricity production at low or zero cost (nuclear, hydro, wind, solar) during the summer, compared with electricity consumption that remains low as long as electrification projects do not materialise.
In such situations, all low-carbon production in France will have to adjust its output downwards in response to market prices: controllable hydroelectric facilities (reservoirs or pumped storage plants), nuclear facilities – operated to adjust to market prices and therefore reducing production in the afternoon and at weekends – and, increasingly, wind and solar power, which curtail production during periods of negative prices.
These situations are not new, but their frequency and scale are increasing, leading to a need to change the rules governing system balancing coordination. With the gradual implementation of new provisions over recent months and in the months to come, RTE will have new levers at its disposal to facilitate and ensure this system balancing at all times: direct participation of offshore wind farms in the adjustment mechanism via amendments to their support scheme, mandatory participation of renewable energy farms in the adjustment mechanism from 1st January 2026, etc. The ongoing changes to the rules must continue in order to fully adapt the operation of the electricity system to the new electricity context and optimise its functioning.
In this context, RTE reaffirms the importance of accelerating the development of demand flexibility by shifting consumption during periods of abundant midday production, in order to benefit from very low wholesale electricity prices during these periods and avoid losses in low-carbon electricity production.